Know When to Hold 'Em, Know When to Fold 'Em
Know When to Hold 'Em, Know When to Fold 'Em
Tyus Jones leaves the Wizards for a vet minimum in Phoenx, but how did we get here?
(Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away, know when to run. These are lyrics from ‘The Gambler’ by Kenny Rogers and exemplifies the different actions that a poker player can make when faced with a bet from an opposing card player. Well, when it comes to the game of poker between the Washington Wizards and point guard Tyus Jones, the front office thought that Jones was bluffing, and it wasn’t until Saturday afternoon that he laid his cards on the table.
ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that Jones had reached an agreement with the Phoenix Suns for one year, worth $3.3 million. Through my reporting I had narrowed it down to Phoenix, Memphis, Atlanta, and Minnesota as the teams that were showing interest in signing Jones, with Phoenix and Memphis emerging as the favorites Saturday morning. Ultimately, Jones chose Phoenix because they will give him an opportunity to remain a starting point guard and compete at a high level. Memphis and Atlanta offered him more money, but he would have had to go back to a backup role behind Ja Morant and Trae Young respectively.
Jones was at a very interesting crossroads for his career after hitting unrestricted free agency with the expectation that he would receive a starting point guard job at a starting point guard salary and is certainly disappointed to be signing for the veteran’s minimum. From Jones’ perspective there will be plenty of blame to go around, but it has to start with him because he may have overplayed his hand in a way that cost himself millions of dollars.
It is my understanding that in the time period between the end of the finals and the actual start of free agency, NBA teams were allowed to negotiate with their own pending free agents. My sources reveal that the Wizards did make Jones a multi-year offer for $10 million-plus annually in which he told them that he wanted to wait and see what other offers he might receive. The Wizards front office very much liked Tyus for the young guys, and the team wanted to sign him to a deal that would have been much more tradeable than the price point that he was asking for. In a statement to ESPN, Jones explains some of the thought process that went into his decision to go with the Suns:
"The chance to play for the Phoenix Suns made the most sense on a lot of levels to me and my family -- beginning with the way [governor] Mat Ishbia and the front office recruited me to how coach [Mike Budenholzer] showed me how I can significantly impact a team that has a real opportunity to challenge for an NBA title as their starting point guard," Jones told ESPN on Saturday.
"My agent [Bradbury] walked me and my family through multiple free agent offers and sign-and-trade proposals at a number of different financial levels, but the Suns' opportunity is where I can best maximize my value for a return to free agency next year as well as give myself a chance to be part of what I think will be a special team and season."
The Wizards overplayed their hand by not knowing when to fold it and holding onto it for entirely too long. The wishful thinking of being able to acquire more than a couple of second round picks at the trade deadline ultimately cost the Wizards and allowed them to get absolutely nothing for Jones. The Wizards had offers for Jones at the trade deadline that would have netted them multiple second round picks but decided that it was worth the risk to try and get more for Jones.
One of the cause-and-effect scenarios that greatly impacted Jones being able to come back to the Wizards was the draft day trade the team made for Deni Avdija that sent him to the Portland Trail Blazers. The Wizards received Malcolm Brogdon and his $22.5 million salary in that deal from Portland, but my sourcing tells me that the intent was to try and move Brogdon again and re-sign Jones to a fair contract.
One of the vulnerabilities of the Wizards current front office is how much they value the players in their building versus what the rest of the league values. Teams are interested in some of the Wizards veteran players on the roster, but their asking prices have been unrealistic and have irritated a few teams at the negotiating table. It seems that Michael Winger and Will Dawkins have the same problem that a lot of Wizards fans have, which is over-valuing the players in the building.
If the Wizards could have landed on a deal for Brogdon, then they would have been happy to re-sign Jones, but once it became clear to them that their asking price for Brogdon would not be met, they then spent their efforts on trying to help Jones facilitate finding a new home. The problem with that was that no one could have predicted how the middle contract market would completely crater and leave teams either signing players on max contracts or veteran minimums, with very few teams showing any interest in signing players in the $10-$20 million range. A part of that has to do with teams actively trying to avoid the NBA’s new tax apron system and subsequently the non-tax paying teams know that they aren’t in as much competition in years past to have to outbid teams for players, so they can come in with lowball offers knowing that players don’t have as many options.
What happened with Tyus Jones and the Wizards is a cautionary tale to players about not taking advantage of extensions when they are made available and sometimes “betting on yourself” can leave your pockets a little lighter. At least Jones will have an opportunity to get out on a one-year deal and prove to the other NBA teams that he can be a starting point guard on a contending team.
I remember a conversation I had with an NBA agent a few years back where he told me that he tells his clients to avoid signing “prove it” deals at the league minimum because once NBA teams see you as a minimum player, it's kind of hard to unsee it. I wish Tyus Jones nothing but the best and was very appreciative of his short-lived time in D.C., but his leaving opens up a lot of minutes for Jordan Poole to be the team’s starting point guard and for rookie Bub Carrington to get adequate minutes behind him, which will ultimately be the best for the development of the Wizards as a basketball team. Hopefully this will be used as a learning lesson for the Wizards front office to be more prudent about their evaluation of their own players and to have more contingency plans in case things start to shift.
With Jones officially leaving and the team re-signing veteran Anthony Gill this week, the Wizards now have 17 players signed and only 15 roster spots available so that means two of their young players will not be on the opening day roster and that training camp will be competitive with jobs on the line. I think it is safe to say that the Wizards offseason is officially over and that the fans and team can all start looking towards the future and what the 2024-25 season has to hold.